Caracas vs Botafogo FR: The xG Gap Nobody's Talking About

Botafogo FR are being treated as comfortable favourites for this Copa Sudamericana fixture, and on the surface that reads as reasonable. Dig into the numbers, though, and the popular narrative starts to crack. Yes, Botafogo generate 21.6 shots per game to Caracas's 15.4 — a meaningful gap. But Caracas are converting their limited volume into 5.8 shots on target per game and posting an xG of 2.0, which for a side averaging just 42% possession is quietly impressive. They are doing more with less. Meanwhile, Botafogo's 11-match away streak of producing 2+ total goals is real, but it has also been stress-tested by exactly one high-quality Venezuelan defence — and that test ended 1-1 in April. This match, on 27 May 2026, deserves more scrutiny than the form tables alone suggest. Check out the full match statistics for the complete picture.

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Botafogo FR's Away Streak Is Real — But Read the Small Print

Eleven consecutive away matches with 2+ total goals is a genuinely remarkable run. It signals a team that doesn't shut up shop on the road, that carries enough firepower to threaten regardless of venue. Botafogo's 8.6 shots on target per game and xG of 2.3 confirm this is not a fluke — they create quality, not just volume.

But context matters enormously here.

The Petrolero Distortion

Botafogo's most recent away result in this competition was a 3-0 demolition of Club Independiente Petrolero — the same Petrolero that Caracas beat 3-2 just days earlier. That result inflates the streak's prestige. Petrolero are not a benchmark. Caracas are a different proposition entirely: a side that has stayed competitive against Racing Club twice in their last five games, drawing both encounters.

The one time Botafogo actually faced Caracas away from home — April 2026 — the result was 1-1. That is the only true head-to-head data point available, and it suggests Caracas can absorb pressure and stay level. One result proves nothing. But in the absence of a longer sample, it's the most relevant reference point in the entire dataset.

Fouls as a Pressure Indicator

Botafogo commit 15.0 fouls per game on average — the highest figure in this match's dataset by a distance. Caracas average 11.8. High foul rates in away fixtures often indicate a team being pressed into uncomfortable defending, but they can also signal tactical aggression. Either way, expect a stop-start game that may limit Botafogo's ability to build sustained rhythm.

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Caracas Are Not a Possession Side — They Don't Need to Be

42% average possession sounds like a team getting dominated. In this case, it's a feature, not a bug.

Caracas's last five results — two wins, three draws, zero defeats — were built on a defensive structure that invites pressure and then punishes transitions. They sit deep, absorb, and strike. The 3-2 win over Club Independiente Petrolero and the 2-1 win over Deportivo Rayo Zuliano both came from sides that likely held more of the ball. Caracas were fine with that.

View the full Caracas stats & profile and you'll see a team that has quietly optimised around low-block efficiency rather than territorial control.

The Corners and Throw-Ins Picture

Caracas average just 3.8 corners per game — unsurprising for a side not committing bodies forward — but their 18.6 throw-ins per game tells you exactly where they're operating: wide, defensive channels, winning second balls and recycling possession in their own half.

Botafogo, by contrast, average 4.4 corners and 20.0 throw-ins, consistent with a team that actually attacks wide areas and forces play deep into opposition territory. On a night where Caracas sit in their customary defensive shape, Botafogo should generate corner volume. Whether they convert that pressure into goals against a disciplined low block is the central question.

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The Yellow Card Symmetry That Hides a Tactical Story

Both sides average exactly 2.6 yellow cards per game. That numerical symmetry is deceptive.

For Caracas, those cards are likely a product of professional fouls and defensive line-breaking — the natural output of a team defending deep and stopping counters. For Botafogo, 15.0 fouls per game combined with 2.6 cards suggests referees are being relatively lenient with a team that fouls frequently but perhaps cleanly. In Copa Sudamericana knockout tension, that could change.

Offsides as a Pressing Clue

Botafogo average just 1.0 offside per game — by far the lower number here, against Caracas's 2.0. This matters tactically. A team that rarely gets caught offside is not pushing a high line aggressively; they're staying disciplined and structured in their attacking movement. Caracas going offside twice per game on average suggests they do try to spring forward quickly on transitions, which occasionally catches their forwards too eager.

The offside differential also implies Botafogo's attack is patient and positional rather than speculatively direct — exactly the kind of approach that can be nullified by a well-organised defensive block like Caracas deploy.

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What the xG Numbers Actually Tell Us About This Copa Sudamericana Fixture

The headline xG figures — Botafogo 2.3, Caracas 2.0 — look almost identical at first glance. But the underlying mechanics are very different.

Botafogo generate their 2.3 xG from 21.6 shots, which means an average shot quality of roughly 0.11 xG per attempt. That's league-average quality — they're shooting a lot, but not necessarily from premium positions every time.

Caracas generate 2.0 xG from 15.4 shots, which works out at approximately 0.13 xG per attempt. Their shots, on average, come from better locations. They're not spraying efforts from distance — they're more selective and more clinical in choosing when to commit.

The Shot-to-Target Conversion Gap

Almost identical ratios. The difference in raw shot numbers flatters Botafogo considerably more than the on-target and xG numbers do. For a side averaging over half the ball, Botafogo's xG lead of just 0.3 per game is a thin margin. Caracas are punching well above their possession weight.

For Botafogo FR stats & profile in full, including their Copa Sudamericana-specific numbers, the data paints a portrait of a genuinely strong side — but one whose margins against disciplined opposition are narrower than their reputation suggests.

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Caracas's Home Unbeaten Run: Three Games Is a Sample, Not a Pattern

The AI-detected trend flags Caracas as unbeaten in their last three home matches — a moderate-confidence finding, and the confidence rating is doing real work there.

Three matches is not a run. It's a sample. What makes it meaningful is the quality of the opposition across those three games: two draws against Racing Club (a side with genuine continental pedigree) bookend that stretch. Caracas did not go unbeaten at home against weak sides. They held their own against a team significantly better resourced.

The 1-1 draw with Zamora is the one caveat — Zamora are domestic opposition and a weaker benchmark. Strip that out and the Racing Club results look considerably more impressive.

What This Means for the Home or Draw Market

This is not a straightforward home advantage situation. Caracas are not a team trying to dominate at home — they're a team that makes home an inconvenient venue for opponents. Their compact defensive shape, willingness to cede possession, and counter-threat make them genuinely difficult to break down on their own patch.

Botafogo arrive as the stronger side by most conventional measures. But stronger sides have repeatedly found Caracas frustrating when the game is played at low tempo on a compact pitch with limited space in behind.

Run your own numbers through the today's AI-powered analysis tool if you want a second opinion on how these trends interact — the system weights recent form and head-to-head data simultaneously in ways that a simple table scan doesn't capture.

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The Numbers That Matter Most