Serie B

Catanzaro vs Modena: 12 Home Games Unbeaten Says It All

Catanzaro haven't lost at home in 12 matches. Modena are quietly surging. The data tells a collision story worth reading.

14 April 2026Catanzaro vs Modena

Catanzaro haven't lost a home match in 12 consecutive games. That's not a purple patch — that's a fortress. When Modena arrive on 14 April 2026 for this Serie B fixture, they walk into one of the division's most statistically stubborn home environments. Yet Modena's own trajectory over the past five matches tells a story of a side that has quietly rebuilt confidence after a rough start to that run. This one has layers.

Check the full match statistics if you want the raw numbers. What follows is what those numbers actually mean.

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Modena's Rollercoaster: From Bari Collapse to Back-to-Back Wins

Start with Modena, because their arc over five games is the more dramatic of the two.

Five games ago: a 1-3 hammering at home to Bari. Shot in confidence, leaking goals, looking like a side playing out time in mid-table. Then something shifted.

The Turnaround in Three Matches

From that Bari low, Modena strung together:

1. W 2-1 vs Mantova FC — grinding out a narrow win

2. W 3-0 vs Spezia — a statement result, controlled and clinical

3. D 0-0 vs Cesena — a clean sheet on the road, showing defensive resolve

That's seven points from nine in their last three. A side in freefall doesn't produce a 3-0 win and a road clean sheet consecutively. Something has clicked structurally.

Their averages across the five-game sample reflect a team that is disciplined in the right ways. 14.2 shots per game leads Catanzaro's 13.0. Their 1.0 yellow cards per game is impressively low — the lowest of the two sides by a significant margin — suggesting they're not chasing games or losing their shape under pressure. 11.4 fouls per game is also the cleaner number.

The concern: their xG sits at just 1.2 per game, identical to Catanzaro's, which means the 3-0 against Spezia may have flattered the underlying quality slightly. Modena are creating volume but not always the highest-quality chances. That efficiency gap will be tested here.

See the full Modena stats & profile for their season-long numbers in context.

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Catanzaro's Dip and Recovery: Two Wins When It Mattered

Catanzaro's five-game story moves in the opposite direction — shakier in the middle, then sharpened at the right moment.

Their sequence, oldest to most recent:

1. D 1-1 vs Avellino

2. D 1-1 vs Monza

3. L 1-3 vs Cesena — the low point

4. W 3-1 vs Calcio Padova — bounce back

5. W 3-2 vs Empoli — a proper statement result

Two wins in the final two games, both high-scoring, both away from home or against promotion-relevant sides. That 3-2 over Empoli in particular — Empoli are no pushovers at this level. Catanzaro scored three goals in each of their last two wins. Whatever attacked them, they're finishing sharply right now.

The Possession Angle

Catanzaro average 51.8% possession across their last five — they're the side that wants to control tempo. That fits the home profile. At their ground, with that 12-match unbeaten run intact, they'll look to dictate from the first whistle.

But the xG number tells a more cautious story. 1.2 xG per game — same as Modena — despite averaging more possession. Catanzaro are holding the ball without consistently converting that dominance into high-danger chances. The 4.0 shots on target per game matches Modena exactly, which is statistically unusual and makes the head-to-head record even more important as a differentiator.

Catanzaro's 2.2 yellow cards per game is notably higher than Modena's 1.0. That aggression might be intensity — or it might be a side that gets stretched and starts fouling to compensate. Worth watching early on.

For deeper context on their season, the Catanzaro stats & profile is worth your time.

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The Head-to-Head Record Is Not a Coin Flip

Five meetings between these two sides. Every single one has produced 3 or more total goals. Every single one has seen both teams score. That's not variance — that's a pattern with structural roots.

The results:

| Date | Result | Total Goals |

|------|--------|-------------|

| Nov 2023 | Catanzaro 1-2 Modena | 3 |

| Apr 2024 | Modena 1-3 Catanzaro | 4 |

| Oct 2024 | Catanzaro 2-2 Modena | 4 |

| Mar 2025 | Modena 2-1 Catanzaro | 3 |

| Dec 2025 | Modena 1-2 Catanzaro | 3 |

Five from five on both metrics. These teams genuinely seem incapable of producing a dull match against each other. The December 2025 meeting — most recent, most relevant — was a 1-2 away win for Catanzaro at Modena's ground. That result alone gives Catanzaro enormous confidence walking into this as the home side.

Corners: An Overlooked Pattern

In the last four head-to-head meetings, 10 or more total corners have been recorded. That matches the broader profile of both sides: Modena average 5.4 corners per game, Catanzaro 4.4. Combined, that's 9.8 per game — and the H2H history suggests when these two meet, the number climbs above what individual averages might predict. High-tempo, competitive matches tend to generate set-piece situations, and this fixture has consistently delivered them.

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Home Fortress or Away Ambition: Who Has the Edge?

The 12-match home unbeaten run for Catanzaro is the single most load-bearing number in this analysis. Across Serie B, sustaining that kind of home record requires more than luck — it requires a tactical setup that exploits familiar territory, crowd pressure, and the psychological edge of knowing you haven't lost at home in what is effectively a full half-season.

Modena's away form across the five-game sample is mixed. They lost heavily to Bari — though that was a home match — and the clean sheet at Cesena is genuinely encouraging. But Cesena is a very different proposition to walking into Catanzaro's ground with a 12-game unbeaten streak hanging over you.

The Discipline Contrast

This could be decisive in a tight game:

Catanzaro yellow cards per game: 2.2

Modena yellow cards per game: 1.0

A Catanzaro midfielder suspended or cautioned early changes the dynamic significantly. Modena's cleaner disciplinary record means they're less likely to hand the home side numerical or psychological advantages through recklessness.

Fouls and Rhythm

Catanzaro fouls per game: 12.2

Modena fouls per game: 11.4

Neither side is particularly dirty, but Catanzaro's higher foul count combined with their yellow card average suggests they play on the edge more consistently. In a high-stakes home fixture, that can be a tool — until it becomes a liability.

The today's AI-powered analysis breaks down these disciplinary trends across the full season if you want to go deeper.

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The Numbers That Matter Most

Catanzaro are unbeaten in 12 straight home matches. That run covers a broad range of opponents and is the strongest single indicator of what happens in this fixture. Home sides with streaks like this tend to defend them fiercely, particularly in front of their own crowd.

Every head-to-head meeting in the last five has produced goals from both sides. The individual xG numbers (1.2 each) suggest neither defence is elite — and their shared history confirms it. A 0-0 in this fixture would be historically anomalous.

Modena's last three games have yielded 7 points — their best mini-run in months. But two of those three games were at home, and the away clean sheet at Cesena came against a struggling side. The quality of opposition matters.

Combined corner average of 9.8 per game meets a H2H history of 10+ in four consecutive meetings. Two sides that press high, compete for second balls, and generate set pieces. The corner count in this match has consistently outperformed individual averages.

Catanzaro's 3-goal haul in each of their last two wins is the form detail that cuts through the xG caution. When they're up for it, they're clinical. Coming off a 3-2 win over Empoli, momentum is emphatically on their side heading into this Catanzaro vs Modena encounter at home.

View Full Match Stats Today's Smart Analysis