Coritiba FBC vs EC Bahia: The Corner & Card Numbers Win

The numbers tell an interesting story here — and most people looking at this fixture are reading the wrong ones. Yes, Coritiba FBC's form is poor. Yes, EC Bahia haven't won in five. But buried inside the data on this Serie A match is something far more compelling: two statistical patterns so consistent they're almost impossible to ignore. One involves corners. The other involves a referee. Both point to a game that will be louder, scrappier, and more chaotic than the standings suggest. Check the full match statistics and you'll see what the surface-level form table doesn't show you.

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The Corner Stat That Has Held for Five Straight Meetings

Five head-to-head meetings. Five times the corner count hit 8 or more. That's the kind of streak that usually gets explained away — until you look at why it keeps happening, and realise the structural reasons haven't changed.

EC Bahia average 7.2 corners per game across their last five matches. That's not an accident. They average 58.8% possession, take 14.8 shots per game, and generate 1.5 xG. This is a team that attacks in waves, presses into wide areas, and forces opponents back toward their own byline repeatedly. Corners are a natural by-product of that style.

Now look at who they're playing.

Coritiba FBC: Built to Concede Corners

Coritiba average just 41.6% possession at home in recent games. They sit deep. They defend in numbers. They cede territory willingly. When a high-possession side like Bahia pushes them back, the geometry of the game funnels play toward the corners of the penalty area — and corners follow.

Coritiba themselves average only 3.2 corners per game, but that number doesn't matter much here. What matters is the combined total, and the structural mismatch between Bahia's attacking volume and Coritiba's defensive passivity.

That combined average of 10.4 essentially tells you the over 7.5 line should be the starting point, not a stretch. The five-match H2H streak confirms the pattern isn't noise. Explore the EC Bahia stats & profile to see how consistently their corner numbers hold across different opponents — it's a feature of their system, not a fluke of scheduling.

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Anderson Daronco's Card Record with EC Bahia Is Genuinely Strange

Referee data gets ignored in most pre-match coverage. That's a mistake. When a specific official has 4.7 cards per game across six matches involving EC Bahia, that's a statistically meaningful sample — and it tells you something about how this particular combination of referee and team tends to unfold.

Daronco isn't just a card-happy official in general. The context matters. EC Bahia average 3.2 yellow cards per game across their last five matches — the highest of any team in this fixture. They commit 14.4 fouls per game, compared to Coritiba's 12.4. When a high-foul side meets an official who has averaged 4.7 cards in their recent shared history, the math starts looking obvious.

Why EC Bahia Collect Cards

The foul numbers aren't random. A team averaging 58.8% possession that also commits 14.4 fouls per game is pressing aggressively and winning the ball back illegally when their press breaks down. That's a classic high-press side profile — intense, physical, occasionally reckless.

Coritiba, for their part, aren't clean either. They average 1.2 yellow cards per game, which is modest — but they sit deep, they time tackles late, and against a team with Bahia's movement, they'll be dragged into challenges.

Twenty-six combined fouls per game, with an official who historically reaches for his pocket early in Bahia matches. The over 3.5 cards market doesn't look inflated once you see the underlying structure. Run through the today's AI-powered analysis for a full breakdown of how these referee trends stack up across the season.

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EC Bahia's Form Looks Worse Than It Is

Four draws and a defeat in five games sounds bad. It's not quite that simple.

EC Bahia's recent run: drew with Grêmio, lost to Clube do Remo, lost to Cruzeiro, drew with São Paulo, drew with Santos. Three of those five results were draws — and two of the draws came against São Paulo and Santos, neither of whom you'd call pushovers. The loss to Cruzeiro was a 1-2 result in a match they still managed to score in.

The underlying numbers suggest a team that is performing better than their win column shows:

The problem is the 3.2 yellow cards per game. Bahia keep disrupting their own momentum with discipline issues. Games that should be controlled become scrappy. Their 58.8% possession advantage means little if they're defending with ten men or losing their best midfielders to suspensions.

Still — they arrive in Curitiba as the structurally stronger side on paper. Their shot volume alone (14.8 vs Coritiba's 10.0) represents a 48% gap. That's significant.

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Coritiba FBC's Collapse Has Been Spectacular and Specific

One win in five. That win — a 3-0 against Santos — is the kind of outlier result that flatters a form line. Strip it out and you're looking at three defeats and a draw, including a 1-4 loss to EC Vitória that revealed serious defensive vulnerabilities.

The underlying numbers at Coritiba FBC stats & profile make for grim reading:

The Throw-In Tell

Here's an odd detail worth flagging. Coritiba average 19.0 throw-ins per game. EC Bahia average 20.0. Both figures are high, which reflects the kind of end-to-end, laterally contested football these two teams produce when they meet. High throw-in counts often correlate with high-energy, physically contested games where neither team sustains clean possession phases for long.

For a team averaging 41.6% possession, 19 throw-ins suggests Coritiba are scrambling a lot — working hard just to recycle possession to the flanks and reset. It's not a comfortable way to play, and against Bahia's press, it's the kind of thing that leads to turnovers in dangerous areas.

The 0.4 offsides per game is also striking — in a completely different way. It means Coritiba are barely attempting anything in behind. Their offside trap isn't being tested because they're not running channels. This is a side set up to absorb, not to counter.

That passivity might protect them for long stretches. But across a full 90 minutes against a team generating Bahia's volume, it's a difficult posture to maintain. The 2+ total goals in Coritiba's last 5 home matches streak — five consecutive games — suggests that even in their current defensive frailty, goals tend to happen here.

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The Head-to-Head Record EC Bahia Own Completely

In the last five meetings between these clubs, EC Bahia have won four and drawn one. Coritiba FBC have won zero. The aggregate scoreline across those five games: 11-5 to Bahia.

This isn't a rivalry. It's a hierarchy.

The three most recent meetings have all finished with both teams scoring and at least three total goals:

1. Coritiba FBC 2–4 EC Bahia (Sept 2023)

2. EC Bahia 3–1 Coritiba FBC (May 2023)

3. Coritiba FBC 1–2 EC Bahia (Nov 2020)

Three matches, three results with 3+ goals, three results with both teams scoring. The pattern holds even when Coritiba lose comfortably — they find a way to get on the scoresheet. That's either pride or tactical necessity, but either way, the both teams to score trend in this fixture has a structural basis.

Bahia score freely in this matchup. Coritiba — even when outplayed — have scored in each of the last three. A team averaging 1.0 xG per game at home, against an opponent they've historically managed to threaten, shouldn't be written off as a blank on the scoresheet.

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The Numbers That Matter Most

The Coritiba FBC vs EC Bahia fixture on May 25th is, statistically speaking, one of the more structured games on the Serie A calendar this weekend. The corners have landed over 7.5 in every recent meeting. The cards have followed Daronco wherever he's gone with Bahia. And goals — from at least one side, usually both — have been a constant. You don't need to read between the lines. The data is sitting right there on the surface.