Championship

Derby vs Oxford Utd: Form Collapse Meets Home Fortress

Derby have won 5 straight at home. Oxford Utd have lost once in 5. Something has to give — and the stats point one way.

18 April 2026Derby vs Oxford Utd

Derby vs Oxford Utd: Form Collapse Meets Home Fortress

Oxford United have generated 1.8 xG per game across their last five matches and won exactly one of them. That is the central tension heading into this Championship fixture on 18 April — a team creating chances but haemorrhaging points, running into a Derby side that has quietly turned Pride Park into one of the division's least hospitable venues.

This is not a game between equals in momentum. One team is trending sharply upward. The other is flattening out at precisely the wrong moment. Here is what the full match statistics will likely reflect come full time — and why.

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Oxford Utd's Slow-Motion Stall

Five games ago, Oxford went to Watford and won 2-0. Clean, controlled, convincing. Since then: draw, draw, loss, draw. One win from five, with three of those four subsequent results failing to produce more than a single goal per side.

The xG figure is the frustrating part for Karl Robinson's side. At 1.8 per game, Oxford are generating enough to win matches. They are not winning matches. The disconnect between process and outcome is real, and it tends to hurt teams psychologically as much as it does in the table.

The Shots-to-Goals Problem

Consider the efficiency numbers:

11.6 shots per game across the last five

3.2 shots on target per game — a conversion rate from shot to on-target of just 27.6%

1.8 xG suggests the chances themselves are reasonable quality

The issue is not what Oxford are creating. It is the final execution. Only 3.2 shots on target from nearly 12 attempts per game is a squad failing to make the goalkeeper work. When you check the Oxford Utd stats & profile, this pattern shows up across a wider sample — it is not a blip.

Their 38.2% average possession tells another story. Oxford are not a side that controls games. They absorb, they transition, they rely on set pieces and second balls. That strategy works until you need a goal in the final 20 minutes, and then the lack of a reliable attacking platform becomes obvious.

The last time Oxford won away from home with any authority, they were a different team emotionally. Right now, they are a side searching for a result rather than playing to earn one. There is a difference.

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Derby's Three-Game Revival and Why It Is Real

Derby's last five reads: L, W, L, W, W. That looks unremarkable until you sequence it chronologically. The defeat to Southampton was five games ago. The wins over Birmingham and Portsmouth — consecutive, clean-sheet victories — are the most recent data. Derby are ending this run pointed upward.

At home specifically, they have won their last five matches. That is not a soft run of fixtures padding a record. Back-to-back 1-0 wins suggest a team that knows how to manage a game, sit on a lead, and make Pride Park uncomfortable for visitors.

What Derby's Numbers Actually Show

44.4% possession — they are not a ball-dominant side either, but more so than Oxford

12.6 shots per game with 4.0 on target — a slightly better shot-to-target conversion than Oxford at 31.7%

1.5 xG per game — lower than Oxford, which means Derby's wins are coming with some fortune, but also with structure

14.4 fouls per game — the highest in this matchup, suggesting they defend aggressively and accept the card risk

That last point matters. Derby have seen 3+ total cards in each of their last 7 home matches. They are not a dirty team in the cynical sense, but they foul early, they foul in midfield, and they set a physical tone at home that unsettles teams who want to play through them.

Oxford, averaging 12.4 fouls per game themselves, will not be squeamish about the contact. This should be a feisty, niggly affair. The referee will have a busy evening.

For deeper context on Derby's home record and squad data, the Derby stats & profile shows just how pronounced the home-away split has become this season.

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The Corner and Set-Piece Subplot

This is where the data gets genuinely interesting, and it could decide the match.

Oxford United have produced 9 or more total corners in each of their last 20 away matches. Twenty. That is not a trend — that is an identity. Oxford away from home are a team that forces corners relentlessly, whether through direct delivery, set-piece recycling, or simply having their attacks snuffed out wide.

Derby, meanwhile, average just 3.4 corners per game across their last five. That asymmetry is stark. If Oxford maintain their away corner patterns — and a 20-game streak in a specific context is about as reliable as football data gets — the set-piece battle will be dominated by the visitors.

Oxford's Aerial Threat From Corners

Oxford's last five away matches have produced 4+ corners in every single one. Their own corner tally is consistent; it is the combined total that reaches those elevated numbers when you factor in the opposition's contribution.

For Derby, corners conceded from their defensive shape will be the main threat Oxford carry into this game. Derby are good at protecting leads but they have shown vulnerability to deliveries into the box. Oxford's attacking corners, when the quality of delivery is right, are a legitimate weapon.

This is a game where the corner count alone is worth tracking closely — and the today's AI-powered analysis flags it as one of the most statistically consistent trends across both squads.

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Head-to-Head: Derby Learned Their Lesson

The last five meetings between these clubs tell a quietly compelling story.

1. Aug 2023 — Derby 1-2 Oxford Utd (Oxford win)

2. Dec 2023 — Oxford Utd 2-3 Derby (Derby win)

3. Oct 2024 — Oxford Utd 1-1 Derby (Draw)

4. Feb 2025 — Derby 0-0 Oxford Utd (Draw)

5. Oct 2025 — Oxford Utd 1-0 Derby (Oxford win)

Oxford hold the slight head-to-head edge: two wins, two draws, one defeat in the last five. But the venue pattern is telling. Three of those five meetings were at Oxford's ground or neutral enough contexts. The most recent Derby home result was a 0-0 draw in February 2025.

Oxford have not scored at Pride Park in their last visit there. Derby, by contrast, are a completely different proposition at home than away — the 1-0 wins over Birmingham and Portsmouth were both grind-it-out affairs where defensive solidity, not attacking flair, was the product.

Oxford will come knowing they have the head-to-head leverage. Derby will come knowing that means considerably less on their own turf against a visiting side whose creative output is misfiring.

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The Numbers That Matter Most

Derby's home xG vs Oxford's away xG: Derby average 1.5 xG per game overall; Oxford generate 1.8 but convert poorly. Oxford's 3.2 shots on target per game means they are asking goalkeepers roughly 16 questions across five matches total — barely three per game that test the keeper. At Pride Park, against a defensively organised Derby side, that volume may not be enough.

The 20-match corner streak is the most statistically significant trend in this fixture. Oxford averaging 4.6 corners per game in their last five, combined with Derby's own contributions at 3.4, points toward a high-corner match. Two set-piece-reliant teams in a tight, low-possession contest generates corners as a byproduct.

Derby's disciplinary profile at home is the most consistent thing about them this season. Seven straight home matches with 3+ cards combined is not a coincidence — it is their defensive approach codified. They foul, they break rhythm, they make matches ugly. For an Oxford side already struggling to translate xG into goals, playing in a stop-start game suits Derby perfectly.

Oxford have scored 2+ goals in each of their last four away matches, but three of those were draws or a loss. Scoring goals has not been the problem — keeping them out has been. Derby's last two home wins were both 1-0. This matchup could end up decided by a single moment rather than a tactical battle of attrition.

The possession gap — 44.4% vs 38.2% — is more significant than the raw numbers suggest. Neither side dominates the ball, but Derby's extra six percent at home typically translates into dictating tempo in the final 20 minutes. Oxford's recent draws all share a pattern: they stay in games, but they lack the ball control to see them out or turn them. On Derby's turf, that limitation could prove decisive.

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Derby vs Oxford Utd arrives at a moment when the hosts have the clearer momentum, the stronger home record, and the more favourable structural matchup. Oxford bring xG, corner threats, and head-to-head history. The question is whether a team that has drawn three of its last four has the cutting edge to break down a side that has kept five consecutive home wins intact.

The statistics suggest a tight, physical Championship match where margins are small and Derby's home advantage is genuine rather than nominal.

View Full Match Stats Today's Smart Analysis