Elfsborg vs Mjällby AIF: 23 Games Can't Be Wrong

The numbers tell an interesting story — and in this case, two of them are genuinely hard to ignore. Elfsborg have produced 2+ total goals in each of their last 23 home matches. Not a hot streak. Not a phase. Twenty-three consecutive home fixtures without a dull, locked-up nil-nil or a solitary goal to split the sides. Meanwhile, their last 6 home games have all produced 9 or more corners. For a team averaging just 4.4 corners per game across their last five outings, that home-specific pattern is a statistical anomaly worth pulling apart. This Allsvenskan fixture on 21 May 2026 sits squarely inside both trends — and Mjällby AIF's recent form suggests neither is about to end quietly. You can track the full match statistics as they develop.

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23 Home Games and Counting: The Stat That Reframes Everything

Elfsborg's 23-match home streak of 2+ total goals is the kind of number that changes how you read everything else about this fixture. It stretches back through different opponents, different moments of form, and what appears to be a genuinely volatile home environment — one where goals come regardless of context.

Their last five results tell a mixed story on the surface: two wins, two draws, one loss. But look closer at the Elfsborg stats & profile and the pattern is consistent. They scored in every game. They conceded in three of five. They're not a team that suffocates matches — they're a team that lives in open, scrappy football.

What Their Numbers Actually Say

A team averaging under 50% possession and only a third of their shots on target shouldn't be producing this many goals. But here we are. The xG model says 1.0 per game. The scoreboard has said 2+ for 23 straight home appearances. At some point, the environment is the data.

Mjällby AIF arriving in this kind of fixture is significant. They haven't exactly been playing cagey football themselves.

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Mjällby AIF's Shot-Stopping Problem (For Elfsborg, That's Good News)

Mjällby AIF have been on a tear. Four wins from their last five, including scalps against Hammarby IF, Malmö FF, and Degerfors IF. Their only defeat was a narrow 0-1 against BK Hacken. On paper, they arrive at Elfsborg in the kind of form that demands respect.

But dig into the Mjällby AIF stats & profile and a complication emerges. Mjällby are averaging 6.0 shots on target per game across their last five. That's nearly double Elfsborg's 3.4. They're not just threatening — they're consistently making goalkeepers work.

The Conversion Question

Mjällby's xG sits at 1.2 per game with a 9.4 shots average — better shot selection than Elfsborg, higher conversion efficiency. Their four wins weren't fortunate. They were earned through genuine attacking pressure.

But here's the friction point: Mjällby are also the most foul-prone team in this fixture, committing 13.6 fouls per game — a full 3.4 more than Elfsborg per 90 minutes. That's not just a discipline issue. It's a tactical tell. Teams that foul at that rate tend to be pressing high, losing duels, and scrambling to recover shape. In open, transition-heavy games — exactly the kind Elfsborg's home environment produces — that rate of fouling creates space.

Elfsborg commit fewer fouls but collect more cards. That suggests they're fouling in dangerous areas — not chasing shadows in midfield, but stopping attacks near the box. Two teams with different flavours of physical play, colliding in a stadium that has produced goals in 23 straight home fixtures. The ingredients are obvious.

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Nine Corners Every Single Time: Elfsborg's Set-Piece Environment

The second anomaly is harder to explain away. Elfsborg's last 6 home matches have all produced 9 or more corners. Their season average across the last five games — home and away combined — is just 4.4 corners per game. Mjällby average 4.6.

Combined, that's roughly 9 corners per game in average conditions. But something about Elfsborg at home pushes that number higher, consistently. Six straight home games above the threshold isn't noise — it's a structural pattern.

Why Home Games Produce More Corners

Corners are generated by teams attacking with intent and defensive units scrambling to keep the ball out. Elfsborg at home plays with enough ambition to force corners. Their opponents, facing a crowd and a team with territorial motivation, tend to defend deeper and put more balls behind their own line.

Mjällby's attacking approach — 9.4 shots per game, 50% possession — means they'll push forward and win their own corners. Their 4.6 corner average is slightly above Elfsborg's. In a home fixture where Elfsborg's pattern already inflates corner counts, two attack-minded teams should comfortably contribute to that total.

This isn't a flimsy correlation. Six consecutive home games above 8.5 corners, while the combined team averages already sit near that threshold, is a data point that earns its weight. You can cross-reference every underlying metric through today's AI-powered analysis.

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Head-to-Head: Mjällby's Recent Dominance and What It Actually Means

The last five meetings between these sides make for uncomfortable reading if you're an Elfsborg supporter.

1. Oct 2025: Mjällby 2-0 Elfsborg

2. Jun 2025: Elfsborg 0-1 Mjällby

3. Mar 2025: Elfsborg 2-2 Mjällby

4. Aug 2024: Mjällby 1-1 Elfsborg

5. Jul 2024: Elfsborg 3-1 Mjällby

Mjällby have won three of the last five, with one draw and one Elfsborg win. They've also kept two clean sheets in those fixtures — both coming in away games, both recent. The head-to-head trend runs in Mjällby's favour, and that's hard to dismiss entirely.

The Home Factor Complicates the Picture

But context matters. Mjällby's 3-match unbeaten away run is genuine, and their current form is arguably the best of any side in this fixture right now. Yet Elfsborg's home record — 4 matches unbeaten at home — sits inside that 23-game goal-scoring streak. These aren't separate facts. They're overlapping.

What the head-to-head also confirms: four of the last five meetings have produced 2+ goals. The only exception was Mjällby's 1-0 win in June 2025. Every other encounter has had at least two. Even the meetings where one team has dominated on paper, the scorelines have stayed open.

This is a rivalry that doesn't do clean sheets easily — except, apparently, when Mjällby are in the mood for a single-goal heist. Given their current form, that possibility isn't zero. But the structural patterns in this fixture argue against it.

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Possession, Throw-Ins, and the Shape of This Game

One tactical detail that doesn't get enough attention: throw-ins.

Elfsborg average 21.0 throw-ins per game. Mjällby average 17.5. That 3.5 differential is meaningful. High throw-in counts correlate with longer spells of play in wide areas, more out-of-bounds disruptions, and — critically — more transitions. It's the kind of football that suits neither a possession-dominant style nor a low-block. It's chaotic.

Elfsborg's 48.8% possession average confirms they're not trying to control. Mjällby's 50.0% suggests they're marginally more comfortable with the ball, but only just. Two sides hovering around the 50% mark, playing a physical and transition-heavy game, with one side committing nearly 14 fouls per game.

This won't be a chess match. It'll be contested, stop-start, and physical — precisely the kind of game where set-pieces and transitional moments decide outcomes. Which circles back neatly to the corners trend.

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The Numbers That Matter Most

Elfsborg vs Mjällby AIF on 21 May is framed, numerically, as a fixture where goals and corners arrive in volume. The data has been saying the same thing for six games on one front and twenty-three on the other. At some point, you stop calling it a trend and start calling it a pattern.