1 Snl

NK Aluminij vs NŠ Mura: Four Losses Deep and Leaking

Aluminij haven't won in four. Mura generate twice the shots. The H2H and xG data tell a surprisingly specific story.

16 April 2026NK Aluminij vs NŠ Mura

NK Aluminij vs NŠ Mura: Four Losses Deep and Leaking

NK Aluminij have lost four of their last five league matches, conceding ten goals in the process. That's not a rough patch — that's a structural problem. When NŠ Mura arrive on 16 April 2026, they face a home side averaging just 7.2 shots per game and 44% possession, running on fumes and forced to absorb pressure rather than generate it. The NK Aluminij vs NŠ Mura matchup has produced goals in bulk across recent meetings, and the underlying numbers this time around suggest that tradition has every reason to continue. Check the full match statistics for the complete data picture.

Mura are no world-beaters themselves — one win in their last three, and a 0-3 hiding from Maribor still fresh — but in terms of raw attacking output, they are operating in a different tier than their hosts right now.

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Aluminij's Attacking Numbers Are a Crisis Dressed as a Slump

Four losses. One draw. And when you dig into the NK Aluminij stats & profile, the offensive data explains the results before the fixtures even need to.

Over their last five matches, Aluminij average:

7.2 shots per game — among the lowest in the division at this stage

2.8 shots on target per game — barely one clean attempt per 30 minutes

1.5 xG per game — the chances they're creating are low-quality, not just low-volume

The 2-4 loss to FC Koper is the result that stings most in context. Aluminij scored twice, which flatters them. In matches where they've been held to one goal or fewer — three of their last five — they've gone 0-3. Their 44% possession average tells you this team is being pushed back regularly, with opponents setting the tempo.

The Home Record Offers One Lifeline

There is one number working in Aluminij's favour: both teams have scored in each of their last five home matches. Five straight. That streak doesn't mean Aluminij win these games — they've clearly been losing them — but it confirms they can find the net even when under sustained pressure. Their 15.8 fouls per game at home also suggests a team defending desperately at times, which often opens up counter-attacking moments. Whether those moments turn into goals is the question.

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NŠ Mura's Volume Attack Will Expose a Leaky Backline

Mura are the more dangerous side on paper right now, and the numbers make that case cleanly. Browse the NŠ Mura stats & profile and you'll find a team that generates real volume in the final third.

Over the last five games, Mura average:

14.2 shots per game — nearly double Aluminij's output

4.8 shots on target per game — 71% higher than their opponents here

2.0 xG per game — a third higher than Aluminij's 1.5

5.6 corners per game vs Aluminij's 2.6 — set-piece threat is real

The 2-0 win over Radomlje and 3-1 win over Primorje show what Mura look like when their attack clicks. They're not consistent — the 0-3 loss to Maribor and 1-2 defeat to Bravo are reminders that this squad can switch off entirely — but against an Aluminij side that has allowed at least two goals in four of their last five, the conditions are right.

The Possession Gap Is Telling

Mura hold 48% possession on average, Aluminij 44%. That four-point gap might look modest, but in the context of this match, it matters. Aluminij at home against a team that actively controls the ball will be forced into their default mode: compact, reactive, waiting for transitions. That works when the defensive structure holds. When it doesn't — and the last month suggests it hasn't — high shot volumes from the opposition become high scorelines.

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Why NŠ Mura Can't Stop Fouling (And What It Costs Them)

Mura's aggression is both their engine and their liability. 19.2 fouls per game is a significant number — more than three fouls per game above Aluminij's 15.8. They also pick up 3.0 yellow cards per game, which over a 90-minute match is a booking every 30 minutes on average.

This matters tactically because:

1. A team conceding that many fouls in dangerous areas gifts opponents set-piece opportunities

2. Disciplinary accumulation affects squad availability — suspensions at this stage of the season are costly

3. High-foul teams in tight matches often concede penalties or free kicks that swing games on a single moment

For Aluminij, this is one of the few structural advantages they can exploit. Their 1.0 offsides per game — marginally lower than Mura's 1.2 — suggests they're not throwing players forward blindly. They're patient. If Mura's fouling pattern gives Aluminij set-piece access, a dead-ball specialist could be the difference between this being a comfortable Mura win and a competitive 90 minutes.

Throw-Ins: The Stat Nobody Talks About

Mura average 23.0 throw-ins per game. Aluminij average 16.5. That seven-throw-in gap is significant — it reflects how much of the game is played in Aluminij's half, how often Mura are pressing wide and forcing play out of bounds. Throw-ins in the attacking third are dead-ball moments that organised teams convert into chances. Mura's corner average of 5.6 reinforces the same story: they're consistently forcing play to the byline and winning set pieces.

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Head-to-Head History: No Clear Pattern, But Goals Are Guaranteed

The last five meetings between these sides read like a coin flip:

1. Feb 2026: NŠ Mura 0-3 NK Aluminij

2. Oct 2025: NK Aluminij 2-2 NŠ Mura

3. Aug 2025: NŠ Mura 1-1 NK Aluminij

4. Apr 2024: NŠ Mura 3-1 NK Aluminij

5. Mar 2024: NK Aluminij 2-0 NŠ Mura

Three different outcomes. Goals in every single fixture. The February 2026 result — a 3-0 Aluminij win — is the most recent data point and it cuts against the current form narrative. Aluminij were capable of a clean sheet and a three-goal performance against this exact Mura side just ten weeks ago.

Form vs Head-to-Head: Which Wins?

This is the central tension in analysing this 1 Snl fixture. Aluminij's current form is poor across every metric. But the H2H record shows they've won two of the last five against Mura and only lost once. Teams that set up specifically to frustrate a known opponent can outperform their recent averages — especially at home, where Aluminij have the crowd and familiarity.

Mura's form is better but inconsistent. They've beaten the bottom-half sides (Radomlje, Primorje) and lost to the top sides (Maribor, Bravo). Aluminij sit somewhere in the middle of that spectrum right now, which is precisely where Mura's results become unpredictable.

The goal data from the H2H — at least two goals in four of the last five meetings — aligns tightly with Aluminij's home both-teams-to-score streak of five matches. Goals are the one near-certainty in this fixture. The scoreline could go in either direction.

For those wanting the complete statistical breakdown before kickoff, today's AI-powered analysis runs the numbers across every angle.

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The Numbers That Matter Most

Mura's shot volume is 97% higher than Aluminij's over the last five games (14.2 vs 7.2). When a team outshoots opponents by that margin consistently, it shows up in results — and Aluminij's backline has already conceded 10 in five matches.

Both teams have scored in every single one of Aluminij's last five home matches. Five from five. That streak predates Aluminij's current defensive collapse and has held through poor form — it's a structural pattern, not a coincidence.

The February 2026 H2H result (Aluminij 3-0 Mura) is an outlier worth tracking. Aluminij's xG average of 1.5 doesn't support another three-goal performance, but it does suggest that when they find their structure against Mura specifically, they can be clinical against a side that gives fouls away at 19.2 per game.

Mura's 23.0 throw-ins per game is the highest figure in this fixture by a distance. That volume reflects territorial dominance in Aluminij's half — and territorial dominance against a side averaging 2.6 corners per game eventually produces chances, corners, and set-piece danger.

Yellow cards could be decisive in the second half. Mura average 3.0 per game; Aluminij 2.6. Combined, that's 5.6 bookings per 90 minutes on average — in a tight, physical match between two sides who foul frequently, the card count shapes substitution decisions and second-half pressing intensity more than most analysts account for.

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NK Aluminij vs NŠ Mura on 16 April 2026 is a fixture where the data pulls in two directions at once. Mura's attacking numbers are clearly superior. Aluminij's home record for goals is remarkably consistent. The H2H history refuses to deliver a clean trend. What the numbers do confirm, collectively, is that this match produces goals — and that Mura's volume attack against a backline that has leaked ten in five is a combination that rarely stays quiet.

View Full Match Stats Today's Smart Analysis