SE Palmeiras vs Junior: Corners, Control & Libertadores Edge

SE Palmeiras have won every home Copa Libertadores clash with Junior by a combined score of 11-1 — and the one time Junior broke that sequence, it took a 1-1 draw in April 2026 to do it. That's not a footnote. That's a structural advantage heading into this fixture on 28 May 2026 at Allianz Parque. The head-to-head record is lopsided enough to matter, the recent form is uneven enough to be interesting, and the corner data is specific enough to tell you exactly how Palmeiras plan to win this Copa Libertadores match.

Here's what the numbers actually say.

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Palmeiras at Home: The Corner Machine Nobody Talks About

Palmeiras are averaging 8.0 corners per game across their last five matches. That's not luck — it's a system. Their last seven home matches have all produced six or more corners, a streak that reflects how they impose themselves territorially rather than just in possession terms.

With 59.8% average possession, Palmeiras don't just hold the ball — they push it wide, stretch defenses, and force teams into recovery mode near their own byline. Corners are a byproduct of that pressure. When a side wins the ball back high and wide, corners follow.

Junior, by contrast, average just 4.2 corners per game in their last five. That's a gap of nearly four per match — significant enough to shape the entire set-piece battle. Junior are not a team that pins opponents back. They're compact, transition-focused, and happy to sit in a mid-block.

The last three head-to-head meetings between these sides have produced 8 or more total corners — including the April 2026 draw, which reset recent memory but didn't reset the territorial pattern. Palmeiras dominate the corners column in this fixture historically, and their current form gives no reason to expect a departure from that.

For a deeper look at the territorial statistics shaping this fixture, the full match statistics are already live.

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Junior's xG Hides a Bigger Problem

Here's the number that cuts against the narrative: Junior's average xG over their last five matches is 1.3 — actually higher than Palmeiras' 1.1. On paper, Junior are generating more meaningful chances. Dig into how, and the picture changes.

Their xG Comes From Chaotic Games, Not Controlled Ones

Junior's recent results include a 3-2 win over Sporting Cristal and a 2-2 draw with Once Caldas. Those are open, back-and-forth matches against mid-tier Colombian and Peruvian opposition. The chance quality — and xG — reflects that openness.

When Junior face a side that controls possession and structure, the numbers tighten considerably. The 0-0 draw with Independiente Santa Fe and the 1-1 with Santa Fe before that tell a different story: against organized sides, Junior struggle to convert territory into shots that matter.

The Shot Conversion Gap

Both teams are averaging nearly identical shots on target: 4.8 per game for each side. But Palmeiras are taking 15.8 shots per match to Junior's 14.4 — a marginal volume gap that still points to Palmeiras creating slightly more. More telling is the xG-to-shots-on-target ratio: Palmeiras' 1.1 xG from 15.8 shots suggests they're not getting premium chances, but their overall territorial pressure makes the cumulative volume sustainable.

Junior's 1.3 xG from 14.4 shots actually implies better individual chance quality — which holds up when you consider their game state. They benefit from disorganized matches. Against Palmeiras at home, disorganized is the last thing this fixture will be.

You can cross-reference Junior's chance quality profile directly in the Junior stats & profile.

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Why Palmeiras' Discipline Problem Could Cost Them

Palmeiras average 3.0 yellow cards per game across their last five — a number that reads as aggressive when the context is a knockout-stage Copa Libertadores fixture. Junior aren't clean either, averaging 3.6 yellows per match, but Palmeiras' fouls-to-cards ratio is worth examining.

14.6 fouls per game from Palmeiras, against 12.8 from Junior. Palmeiras foul more and card at a lower rate — which either means they're fouling in less dangerous areas, or that their home advantage keeps referees lenient. Neither is a guaranteed shield in South American continental football.

The 3.4 offsides per game from Palmeiras is also notable. It's nearly three times Junior's rate of 1.2 offsides per match. Palmeiras' forwards are working the offside line aggressively — sometimes too aggressively. It's a signal of a high defensive line from opponents and an expansive, forward-heavy press from Palmeiras. It also means the striker movement is optimistic, occasionally getting cut off before it starts.

Junior's low offside count (1.2) suggests they're not trying to thread runners in behind. They're patient, structured, and willing to work through phases rather than exploit space. That's a disciplined approach that suits an away Copa Libertadores fixture perfectly — until the pressure builds.

The SE Palmeiras stats & profile has the full breakdown of their discipline numbers across the season.

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Form Check: Neither Team Is at Their Peak

Palmeiras' last five results — W, L, D, D, W — carry a specific texture. The 3-0 win over Flamengo looks excellent. The 0-1 loss to Cerro Porteño and the 1-1 draw with Cruzeiro look less so. Their xG average of 1.1 across five games does not suggest a team currently in free-flowing attacking form.

What the 1-1 Draw With Junior in April Meant

The April 2026 draw between these two sides — the most recent H2H — broke Palmeiras' run of three consecutive wins in this fixture. Junior earned something they hadn't managed since at least 2018 against Palmeiras: a share of the points. That changes the psychological weight of this encounter slightly, even if the aggregate head-to-head still sits at 11-1 in Palmeiras' favour across prior meetings.

Junior's form reads D, W, D, D, W — consistent without being dominant. They don't lose often, but they don't consistently win either. Four of their last five results have been draws or narrow wins. They are a team built to not lose, not necessarily built to win.

The Throw-In Battle Nobody Profiles

Both sides are nearly identical on throw-ins: Palmeiras 18.0 per game, Junior 17.8. That parity is unusual given the possession gap (59.8% vs 52.2%). It points to Junior working the flanks when they do have the ball rather than cycling it centrally — which makes sense for a team that's trying to release pressure laterally and stay compact in the middle.

When Junior do get wide, they use it. Whether that's enough against a Palmeiras side with the territorial dominance their corner data implies is the central question of this fixture.

For the AI-generated pattern recognition applied to this match, today's AI-powered analysis is already running the models.

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The Numbers That Matter Most