Norway vs Sweden: The H2H Stat That Changes Everything
Every Norway vs Sweden meeting in 5 years has had goals at both ends. The data behind this Scandinavian rivalry is stranger than you think.
Norway vs Sweden: The H2H Stat That Changes Everything
The numbers tell an interesting story here — and the most interesting one isn't in either team's recent form. It's buried in five years of head-to-head history, and once you see it, you can't unsee it. Every single Norway vs Sweden meeting since 2017 with available scoring data has ended with goals at both ends. Five matches. Five times both teams scored. Meanwhile, Sweden are committing fouls at a rate that would embarrass a Sunday league side. These two threads, pulled together, reveal a fixture with a very specific statistical fingerprint — and it holds whether the match is competitive or not.
Check the full match statistics and the pattern jumps off the page.
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The Foul That Keeps on Giving: Sweden's Discipline Problem
Sweden average 13.0 fouls per game across their last five matches. Norway average 6.2. That's not a gap — that's a canyon.
To put Sweden's number in context: 13 fouls per game is the kind of figure you associate with a team being overrun, scrambling defensively, or simply playing without the ball enough to constantly chase it. Sweden's average possession across their last five is 46.8%. They're the reactive team in almost every game they play right now.
Norway, by contrast, sit at 54.6% possession. They dominate the ball, keep the foul count low, and create at a meaningfully higher rate.
The xG Divide
The underlying numbers sharpen this picture:
That 0.6 xG gap per game is significant over a small sample. Norway aren't just winning games — they're generating genuinely good chances. A 4-1 win over Italy and another 4-1 win over Estonia inflate the goal tally, but the xG number suggests this isn't a mirage.
Sweden's 1.3 xG looks even more fragile when you consider they've lost to Kosovo and Switzerland in their last five outings. Their shot volume is low (9.8 per game), their shots on target lower still (3.6), and their conversion has been inconsistent at best.
For a deeper look at how these numbers break down game by game, the Sweden stats & profile has the full picture.
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Norway's Home Fortress: 12 Matches Without Defeat
Norway are unbeaten in their last 12 home matches. Twelve. That's not a run — that's a statement of identity.
The sequence covers multiple tournament cycles, multiple opponents, and multiple tactical setups. It hasn't broken against a weak schedule either. That 1-2 loss to Holland in the last five came away from home, as did most of their difficult results. At home, Norway are a different proposition.
Their last five results:
1. D 0-0 vs Switzerland
2. L 1-2 vs Holland
3. W 4-1 vs Italy
4. W 4-1 vs Estonia
5. D 1-1 vs New Zealand
Two wins by three goals, a draw against a quality Swiss side, and a narrow loss on the road. The home record contextualises that Holland defeat immediately.
What Norway's Shape Looks Like on the Ball
With 12.8 shots per game and 4.2 on target, Norway aren't a team that floods the box with speculative efforts. Their shot-to-xG ratio suggests a team taking quality over quantity. They're disciplined in possession, measured in attack, and — crucially — hard to break down.
The 1.0 offsides per game is also worth flagging. That's a team running well-timed channels, not gambling on through balls. It's a sign of a coordinated attacking structure, not a chaotic one.
The Norway stats & profile captures the full depth of that home dominance with game-by-game data.
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Five Meetings, Five Times Both Teams Scored
This is the headline stat that separates this fixture from almost any other Scandinavian derby you could point to.
Look at the last five Norway vs Sweden head-to-head results:
| Date | Result |
|------|--------|
| Jun 2022 | Norway 3-2 Sweden |
| Jun 2022 | Sweden 1-2 Norway |
| Sept 2019 | Sweden 1-1 Norway |
| Mar 2019 | Norway 3-3 Sweden |
| Jun 2017 | Norway 1-1 Sweden |
Every single game. Both teams on the scoresheet. Every time.
The aggregate is Norway 10-9 Sweden across those five meetings — a combined 19 goals, 3.8 per game. That's not a low-scoring defensive rivalry. It's a proper contest where neither side can shut the other out.
What makes this stranger is that both teams' recent defensive records are reasonably solid in non-H2H games. Norway kept a clean sheet against Switzerland — a very good side. Sweden held Slovenia to 1-1. Yet when they meet each other, the defensive discipline dissolves and goals flow freely from both ends.
The tactical explanation probably lies in familiarity. These squads know each other well. Pressing patterns get exploited because both sets of players understand the triggers. Transitions open up. And the emotional charge of a Scandinavian derby reduces the risk-aversion that keeps other games tight.
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Corner Kick Warfare: A Market Built on Twelve Matches
Sweden have registered 3 or more corners in every single away match across their last 12. That's a remarkable streak of consistency in what is often considered a chaotic, unpredictable statistic.
Combine that with the head-to-head corner data: the last five Norway vs Sweden meetings have all produced 8+ total corners. Not four of five. Not three. All five.
Norway's corner average sits at 4.4 per game. Sweden's is 5.2. Add those together and you get a projected 9.6 corners for this fixture — comfortably above the 7.5 mark set by the H2H streak.
The corner numbers also align with what we know about how both teams play:
All of this points to a match where the touchlines get a serious workout and the corner count climbs naturally rather than through defensive desperation.
The today's AI-powered analysis runs through the full corner model for this fixture with probabilities attached to each threshold.
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Why Sweden's Foul Rate Should Worry Their Coaching Staff
Back to those 13.0 fouls per game — because it deserves more than a single mention.
Sweden also average 1.8 yellow cards per game across their last five. Norway average 0.8. The discipline gap is consistent across both metrics.
In a friendly context, you might argue that caution gets thrown to the wind and foul counts inflate naturally. But Sweden's pattern holds across competitive and non-competitive fixtures alike. This isn't a sample size quirk — it's a behavioural tendency.
For this match, the practical consequence is that Sweden will likely:
Norway's 4.2 shots on target per game is already a healthy return. Add dead-ball situations generated by Sweden's indiscipline and that number climbs further.
The possession-foul relationship is also telling. Sweden without the ball are aggressive out of necessity, not philosophy. When Norway have 54.6% possession at home — and they will — Sweden will spend large stretches defending and conceding free kicks. That's not a recipe for clean defensive work.
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